Imaginary Growth, Virtual Employment, Hurting Budget

In the midst of stock exchange records, increases in bank deposit rates, the 2nd period GDP data were declared. For some time the data coming from both real sector and financial sector made it evident that the growth would be in a positive direction when compared with 2009. But most economists did not expect 10.3% growth rate. Naturally it was now a religious duty for the high-position authorities to make the most fun of this situation. But, if you wish, let us question what kind of a growth this is. First of all, 2010 June data are still lower than the pre-crisis national income level of June 2008. Secondly, there is no improvement in the distribution of national wealth. On the contrary, societal welfare level has been pulled even lower, which is caused by the institutional increase in population between two years. Thirdly, real wages are rather law and employment figures are either at the same level or lower than 2008 values, excluding the increases in sector. Lastly, there is a virtual increase in employment data. According to the latest declared data, unemployment is 10.5%. However, we must also consider seasonal effects. As the case every year, there is absolute increase in employment between June and October every year. However, it is a well-known fact that decrease will start afterwards. When the effect of hot money entrance on growth is taken into consideration, it is clear and obvious that an increase in employment is not possible. In addition, when it is considered that real employment level is still at 17-18% level, it can be clearly seen that employment increases are far behind growth. For example, although the annual growth in construction industry is 25%, increase in employment is 10%. Manufacturing industry and commercial sector also present a similar picture in which employment increase is far below growth. Interestingly the case for agriculture is exactly the opposite. It indicates that annual growth was 0,6% whereas employment increase is 7,6%. This table which makes its viewers smile does not reflect the truth. In agriculture, which has experienced almost no growth, employment increased by 1 million (!) But how can this happen? TÜİK must provide an explanation. Anyway, there is also budget deficit decrease compared to the previous year. The deficit of the first 8 months of this year was 14 billion TLs, and the deficit of the previous year for the same 8 months period was 31 billion TLs, which represent 54% decrease. Here it is useful to examine tax revenues, as increase in VAT and excise duties is 52%, which naturally shrank the budget deficit. Workers, retirees, civil servants and employees with fixed income are those who have been hurt. The situation is clear and obvious. Unfair distribution of wealth, population increase, decrease of real wages, high level of unemployment...No need for more words.